Expert consensus window for cryptanalytically relevant quantum computers capable of breaking RSA
of enterprises have quantum-safe encryption actually deployed today — DigiCert/Propeller 2025 survey
CAGR of the quantum-safe cryptography market through 2030 — North America leads with 40.3% share
The timeline for quantum computers breaking modern encryption has compressed dramatically. Estimates for the qubit count needed to crack RSA dropped from 20 million in 2019 to potentially 100,000 under certain conditions by early 2026. NIST finalized post-quantum cryptography standards in August 2024 and selected HQC as a backup algorithm in March 2025. The NSA requires all new national security systems to be quantum-safe by January 2027. Meanwhile adversaries are already running "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks — collecting encrypted data today to decrypt when quantum hardware matures.
→RSA and ECC will be deprecated by 2030 and fully disallowed by 2035. Most enterprises don't have a migration plan — who should own this?
→The G7 Cyber Expert Group adopted a PQC roadmap in January 2026 focusing on financial sector infrastructure. How do Triangle fintech and finserv leaders respond?
→Vendor quantum hype vs. genuine capability — what do CISOs and CTOs in regulated industries actually need to know today?